El Niño storms may double rainfall total
by Lenny Roberts

The dry creeks, extreme fire danger and brown hillsides in Southern California will more than likely be erased this winter by an El Niño condition, as early-season storms have indicated.
With the arrival of Thursday's storm - expected to bring varying but substantial amounts of precipitation throughout the weekend - the percentages of normal could easily double those for this time last year.
AccuWeather, the forecasting service for the Ojai Valley News online edition, is predicting measurable amounts of rain for the local area over the next few weeks. On the average, Ojai receives 3.5 inches of rain in December; 4.9 in January; 4.5 in a 28-day February; and 3.5 in March. Entering and leaving the rainy season, November and April generally account for about an inch and a half of rain.
November got off to a good start locally as a three-day storm dumped nearly 6 inches of much-welcomed moisture. That amount basically matched last year's total season, which runs from Oct. 1 to Sept. 30.
Between Dec. 14 and 17, Matilija Dam received 2.45 inches of rain for a total accumulation of 9.66 inches thus far this season. The normal total through Dec. 17 is 6.27 inches, according to the Ventura County Public Works Agency.
In the same period, Casitas Dam received 2.05 inches, followed by Oak View, at 1.83, and Ojai, with 1.47 inches. All amounts are estimated from remotely placed rain gauges.
The National Weather Service said last week's early dose of snow and ice in the eastern part of the country may be a glimpse of weather to come during Winter 2002-03, thanks to a moderate-strength El Niño digging in its heels.
"This is a classic El Niño pattern," said retired U.S. Navy Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "El Niño is one of the driving forces behind these kinds of winter storm systems, which develop in the south and head east." Lautenbacher added, "El Niño will shape weather patterns through spring."
El Niño occurs, NWS officials explain, when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean remain above average for more than several months. This usually triggers a chain reaction of atmospheric and weather changes around the globe.
Based on NOAA's latest El Niño forecast and its updated December-February winter outlook, forecasters said the nation can expect warmer-than-normal temperatures across the northern half of the country, wetter and stormier-than-normal weather across the south from California through the Carolinas, and drier-than-normal conditions in the northern Rockies and Midwest, according to NOAA's Web site.

© 2002 The Ojai Valley News

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